The fight for Africa

Filed Under: 2 cents by airceo
Jul.26, 2010

Hundreds of years ago, the powers of the world fought over Africa and carved its landmass into many pieces which they proceeded to profit from for long stretches of time. Today, a similar fight is on the cards, only this time the would be conquerors are airlines fighting for the skies.

Needless to say the existence of many routes operating in and out of Africa are steeped in historical ties – Air France for instance is very strong in West Africa. However, such historical ties are only a small factor in the broader picture. The formation of global airline alliances, armed conflicts, the discovery of natural resources and a host of other factors make the picture far more complex.

If we compare the footprints of the alliances side-by-side we can see that the Star Alliance has the broadest reach. Notice in particular how the major centers that dot the coast of the continent are well served.

Star Alliance Footprint

Not far behind the Star Alliance is SkyTeam. Air France and KLM’s long history in Africa coupled with Kenya Airways’ growth and success are the major factors behind this second place.

SkyTeam Footprint

This leaves OneWorld in third but not by much.

OneWorld Footprint

Let’s not ignore non-alliance players. The collective presence Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad put forward is no longer negligible. You might argue that the gulf trio only affords three non-stop destinations outside Africa – Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi – but I would argue that one-stops at the right price are just as good or better than direct services.

With Ethiopian set to join the Star Alliance shortly, the list of African carriers ready to be rolled into major alliances drops to zero – either for lack of quality or lack of size. A lack of carriers however does not mean a lack a opportunities. The difference now is that anyone who wants a piece of the action will have to really put some skin in the game, not simply agree to a codeshare. Brussels Airlines is already doing this by setting up an operation in Lubumbashi (to be called Korongo) but they will not be the last. Numerous European and Middle Eastern carriers have half an eye on such joint ventures as do the new darlings of African politicians - the Chinese and the Indians.

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The 8 best airline tails in the air today

Filed Under: 2 cents by airceo
Jul.08, 2010

Like anything else of an aesthetic slant, the like and dislike of tail designs is largely subjective. I have compiled the following list of tails as my current top ten with a few accompanying words. They are in no particular order.

Air Tahiti Nui – A flower floating in water; hardly a conventional idea for a tail and yet it works. Beautifully. The ripples in the lagoon blue whisper tranquility and beauty. What better representative could their be of a country that bills itself as paradise on earth?

Etihad - Some would say that this tail is far too masculine and imposing – that it’s almost military in appearance. I think it’s super. It’s certainly not conventional. Nor is it a tail you forget quickly. Etihad has used this design since its inception (albeit with the small change of adding seven stars to represent the seven emirates of the UAE) let’s hope nobody talks them into changing it.

Qantas - The Kangaroo may have gained and lost a few kilograms over the years but fundamentally this tail has remained unchanged for a very long time, and with good reason. It’s striking, simple and quintessentially Australian.

There was chatter that QF were going to paint a few tails with the silhouette of other Aussie animals such as the wallaby. That appears to have been nothing more than a rumor.

Egyptair – After many years of that awful bland blue-with-chicken-scratch tail the folks at Egypt Air have pulled up their socks and made a change. The new tail is a winner. All of their new metal is coming online with this new tail. The concentric waves of blue are simply mesmeric!

Gulf Air – Even before it’s rebirth, Gulf Air had a striking tail. Of course, as the various emirs got into a “mine’s bigger than yours” competition leaving Bahrain in the lurch it didn’t really make sense to preserve the red, black and green runners… since Bahrain’s flag sports none of those colors.

The new design (tail and livery) is great. So great in fact that it has been knocked of twice (that I know of) and has set off a wave of imitators. Sure the idea of a bird-only tail is hardly unique but this look easily has the edge over the likes of Singapore Airlines, Garuda Indonesia, Aerolineas Argentinas et al.

Emirates - Long before the billowing sail-inspired Burj al Arab Hotel graced Dubai’s skyline, the billowing flag graced it’s planes. What’s so clever and pleasing about this design is that it does not bastardize the real flag at all, it simply projects it onto the tail.

As far as I can tell the only change between this design and the original is that it’s is ever so slightly less angular.

American Airlines – Simple, timeless, clean, almost arrogant but in a friendly way this tail forces you (well me at least) to look at it. No matter what your allegiance may be this tail is a winner.

Thai - There’s something majestic about this tail’s almost opulent use of powerful colors. Then again I suppose for a carrier that still refers to itself as the “royal orchid service” that opulence should come as no surprise. This new tail was so powerful when it was first rolled out that it had what I call the BMW effect – as soon as you see a new one next to an old one the old one looks like crap, even though it isn’t.

Now if Thai could only bring that external feel to their interiors that would be great; I flew London-Bangkok last year with no on-demand IFE. Less than regal don’t you think?

While I’m on the subject of tails, if anyone knows what that thing Sri Lankan uses on its tails is I would love to know. At least the old bird was intelligible. That new thing is simply awful. Is it a jalapeno?

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Emirates ups A380 order to 90 with more orders to come

Filed Under: 2 cents by airceo
Jun.30, 2010

Emirates A380 coming into YYZ by BriYYZ on Flickr

Let’s be honest 58 A380s was never going to be enough for Dubai’s ambitions. In case you think I’m being sarcastic, I’m not. Once you get over the shock of such a massive order and start to think about it, 58 is not that many. Currently the ten strong A380 fleet serves London (LHR x2 daily), Paris (CDG), Bangkok, Toronto (x3 weekly), Sydney, Auckland (via SYD), Incheon as well as doing some intra-gulf flying mainly to Jeddah. Assuming that the current complement is well utilized that would leave (only!) 48 frames. Placing these 48 across EK’s currently served destinations will not be that difficult. Many of these destinations already enjoy multiple daily frequencies from DXB. Examining that list would be a good starting point.

Cape Town, Dhaka, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Gatwick, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, Karachi, Kuala Lumpur, Male, Manchester, Manila, Mauritius, Melbourne, Moscow, Singapore and Shanghai are all strong candidates to become A380 destinations. Whether all of these spots are A380-ready and whether the authorities/treaties that govern these airports will just take this lying down remains to be seen but EK’s intentions should be clear. At this point it’s just a case of guessing in what order these will come online. Add the additional 32 frames into the mix and only then will you start to struggle to find routes for EK to put them on, but even then not really. At the current dismal delivery rate natural fleet renewal will mean that older 77W frames will be finding new homes and being replaced by A380s.

Beyond the additional 32 A380s the rumored/sort-of-announced intention to order more frames at Farnborough makes things interesting. In all likelihood it will be a modest (by EK standards) 777 renewal order (yes even they acknowledge not every city on earth can support a daily A380) and/or an additional 10 A380s to bring the fleet count there to 100. Say what you will about EK they understand PR!

This “better to have it and not need it” philosophy will work for EK. After all any spares can find homes with EK’s cousin organization DAE and even Senegal Airlines (aka Sri Lankan: the sequel) could probably take one or two for flights to Paris and Marseille in a pinch. Perhaps most importantly by jamming up the order books at Toulouse. EK’s competitors will not be able to get a meaningful A380 fleet put together any time soon.

To me EK’s biggest problem is not going to be finding places to fly the A380, it’s going to be getting foreign governments to yield to their will. I have no doubt that some governments will force addendums to existing bilaterals – replacing frequencies with seat capacities – or at the very least refuse to change existing agreements. If that happens things will get very messy indeed. The UAE-India bilateral is already restricted in this way but more countries will follow suit. Already in battles of attrition with Australia, Canada, Germany and India, Emirates might have to hire as many PR and lobbyist hands as they do pilots to get all those A380s in the air.

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6 People you always see at airports but wish you didn’t

Filed Under: 2 cents, just for fun by airceo
Jun.17, 2010

A tad heavy, no?

The Luggage Lunatic
In an age where seat pitch and width are shrinking, carry-on rules are getting stricter and free check-ins are quickly disappearing you still see the luggage lunatics the second you roll up to the curb. Unless you’re moving to Ouagadougou for good there is no reason to pack like this. Ever. You’re not Imelda Marcos, let’s tone down the luggage.

The Octopus Parent
You know who I’m talking about poor man/woman carrying two kids in the dual Koala-al-Qaeda configuration holding hands with yet more kids of walking age – multiple wheelie suitcases and back-packs in tow; at least one kid crying at all times almost acting as I siren warning you to get out of the way. I have nothing against this group of people and the only reason they make this list is that I want them get some relief.

The Muse
Lack of experience? Lack of knowledge? Lack of a clue. This species of traveler is fascinated and confused by everything. They usually stand around gawking at things – one hand scratching their head, while their heads bob up and down between airports signs and their travel documents. Hint: there are no directions to your gate on you boarding pass. Do not EVER line up behind one of these people and follow at a distance as they are known to perform Crazy Ivans at random.

The Voyageur Idiot Savant
I don’t know what it is about these people but they are everywhere. Usually they are men trying to impress their kids or the significant other with their wealth of aviation and travel knowledge. I recently overheard a guy telling his girlfriend/wife how revolutionary the 747 was “blah, blah, economies of scale, blah, blah hub to hub” and so on. When she asked which plane he was talking about he pointed and said that Air Canada one over there! Air Canada has not operated the 747 for AGES but the real kicker was that he was pointing at an A320 which wasn’t even the biggest plane in sight.

The Turnstiles
I’m not sure who created these jobs or why they are still around but you see them at every airport; people whose entire role it is to direct travelers to various line ups – be it customs, security or check-in. I’m baffled. Where does one even go to apply for such a job? Surely a well placed sign would do the trick… then again the patent lack of logic and flailing hand gestures some of these folks exhibit is worth the price of admission. On second thought let’s keep these people.

The Blackberry Ninjas
These lovely individuals spend every free second they have looking down at their mobile devices furiously thumbing away. Luckily half of this genus consists of business travelers so they at least know where they’re going and how to get there without obstructing other travelers. These folks look up occasionally and grunt when asked questions but beyond that are a waste of space. If you happen to be seated next to one on the plane there is a more than 50% chance that (s)he will still be hammering away during takeoff.

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Rethinking seasonality and charters

Filed Under: 2 cents, what if by airceo
Jun.01, 2010

Why not?

It’s time airlines began rethinking the concepts of seasonality and charters. Currently, seasonal services rely on predicted or proven demand swells to justify a change in capacity for a fixed period of time – usually on a recurring basis, most commonly up-gauging around holidays. There can be no doubt that this practice makes sense. However, given the cutthroat nature of the current aviation market I am surprised no carrier has taken it a step further and pursued a more aggressive approach where seasons are in fact not even a season long. This would involve one (or two, or three) off services between city pairs designed to aggressively target pockets of new revenue. The haphazard nature of this approach would make it seem almost like a charter service – and in many respects it would be – but with one key difference; airlines would no longer be the suitors, waiting around for clients to pitch them. Rather they would become the aggressors and would take the fight pitch to prospective clients.

Let me offer an example. I am attending the Microsoft TechEd 2010 tradeshow in New Orleans next week. Attendance is rumored to be hovering between 8,000 and 9,000 people. Given that it’s a Microsoft show it will come as no surprise that a large contingent will be making their way down to New Orleans from the Redmond, WA area. While there are countless one-stop possibilities to New Orleans from Seattle (to suit any airline allegiance) there is no direct service. For a sizeable portion of the people making this journey a direct flight would be too good to pass up, frequent flier miles be damned. All it would take is for Alaska Airlines (or any other major player in the northwest) to recognize the needs of their market and react. For this particular example I’m sure a few services straddling the tradeshow’s timeline would sell out in minutes. The same issue exists for Canadian attendees of the show – there is no direct service from New Orleans to anywhere in Canada. Would this not then be the perfect time for a Canadian carrier to offer “seasonal” services around this event to New Orleans from Toronto and Calgary? I’m willing to bet it would work. Inevitably airlines would cannibalize some of their own routes by adopting this approach but it would at the same time attract passengers that would preliminarily favor another carrier.

Pursuing opportunities like this would be straightforward. Route Ops teams at carriers would simply have to contact the largest convention centers around their continent(s) and get their annual schedules. With that information and some research into their attendees and organizers, opportunities like this would light up any airline’s route map like a Christmas tree.

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Short-cycle aircraft leasing

Filed Under: 2 cents, what if by airceo
May.20, 2010

Qantas parking lot at LAX by Kim Davies

When planes are on the ground they don’t make money. Why then do numerous carriers the world over allow their precious metal to sit on remote stands gathering dust for hours at a time awaiting their return rotations? Simply put, I think nobody has bothered to challenge the status quo. Look at LAX for instance. It has a hugely impressive offering in terms of trans-Pacific flight possibilities. What’s less impressive is the aircraft utilization of some of the operators. Let’s put Qantas under the microscope for a second. On most days they offer five services into LAX:


Flight Numbers Origin Arrives Departs Idle Time
QF0011/QF0012 SYD 9:40 22:30 12:50
QF0107/QF0108 SYD 6:45 23:50
QF0015/QF0016 BNE 11:00 23:30 12:30
QF0093/QF0094 MEL 7:20 23:20 16:00
QF0025/QF0026 MEL 6:30 23:40 17:10


Out of the flights listed in the above table QF107 continues on from LAX to JFK. The others sit on the ground doing nothing. What’s stopping Qantas from leasing out one or more of these idle frames to their alliance partners at American Airlines to conduct hub to hub runs out of LAX? The numbers would obviously have to be studied but I would imagine that AA could sustain a 747 or A380 service between LAX and at least one of its hubs. DFW alone sees 15 direct dailies from LAX including a 767 followed in quick succession by a 757 during the morning rush. Surely that pair could be replaced with a QF 388/744 with a return flight back to LAX in time for the late night departure down under? It’s a win-win for QF and AA.

Obviously an idea like this sounds simple on paper but requires a lot more thought to implement. In the example I have given – the QF-AA tie:

  • AA would need to ready a stable of pilots rated on the 744/388.
  • QF would need to be satisfied that their equipment and brand was being looked after.
  • “Operated by” stickers would need to be in place to appease the DOT.
  • Perhaps a ghastly OneWorld livery too.

These and a whole slew of other items must be addressed but in the end I think the possibility for this to happen is there. Beyond Los Angeles, San Francisco and Vancouver have planes that sit on the ground for long periods. A similar deal could easily be struck up between say Air New Zealand and United who already fly the 744.

In my opinion if this type of short cycle leasing is ever going to happen the biggest possibility will be between the Virgin carriers. Virgin America are stable and expanding V Australia is making inroads on the US west coast. As both airlines take additional deliveries I think V Australia’s schedule will start to look more and more like Qantas’s which will create the perfect platform for Richard “fair dinkum” Branson’s Aussie carrier to short-cycle lease 777s to Richard “born on the fourth of July’ Branson’s American carrier. Of course such an action would set the “birthers” off and likely cause a ruckus on Capitol Hill, but guess what it would be a perfectly legal arrangement.

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