Emirates A380 on short finals into YYZ by BriYYZ
When it comes to the UAE-Canada Air Transport Agreement, the UAE have been playing with fire for some time, making bellicose statements threatening to close Camp Mirage. Well, it’s happened. The kill order has come down and Canadian forces are poised to exit the UAE and set up shop elsewhere.
It’s not totally clear how this impasse was reached but indications are that the Canadian side of this mess felt that the UAE’s demands were ludicrous. Some reports have them asking for fifty frequencies a week as well as the right to establish a hub in Toronto. Both of those demands – if they are in fact real – are laughable. Were those demands just a ploy, asking for twice what was hoping to be granted?
The truth of the matter is that with this eviction the positions of either side don’t even matter anymore, this has become a purely political issue, and in politics opinion is everything. While Emirates – who I believe to be the main driver behind all this – have a very well oiled PR and Marketing arm they face a huge challenge in controlling the fallout of this latest incident amongst the Canadian public. While the UAE may view the use of a military base as just a bargaining chip, over here in Toronto the value of the base is tightly associated with the hot-button topic of Canada’s combat role in Afghanistan. A mission that has seen 152 Canadians give their lives in an attempt to quell terror on both a global and regional scale. With that sacrifice in mind it’s not hard to see why Canadians are not looking upon this action favourably.
As if the eviction itself wasn’t enough the UAE then went on to take the extraordinary step of denying Canadian Defence Minister Peter McKay and Chief of Defence Staff General Walt Natynczyk rights to overfly the UAE following the completion of a brief tour to Afghanistan. Incidentally, McKay had transited via Camp Mirage on his way to Afghanistan last week. If you want to know what this has done to Canadian public opinion I suggest you surf over to the Globe and Mail’s coverage of this story. The story was published at 6:15PM and in the four and a half hours since has generated 1174 comments! What’s more is that the majority of responses are staunchly anti-UAE all of a sudden, exhibiting a degree of jingoism that I don’t often see in my compatriots – generally we prefer to blast our own government and airlines. While it’s sad to see things degenerate in this manner I feel that this demonstrates how far offside the UAE has stepped – certainly in the public’s perception. While this is front page political firebrand over here the only mention of this fracas on the Khaleej Times website was a thinly worded piece buried in the depths of the business section, yes the business section. I think this placement clearly illustrates how differently this story has resonated in the two countries.
Canada’s graduated approach to expanding air travel agreements may not have sat well with the UAE from day one but because of their most recent actions, their chances of getting what they want have gone from slim to very slim. What’s worse – for Emirates and Etihad – is that other countries may now show a bit more backbone in negotiations which would certainly make their expansion a little more difficult than they would like. As for rumours and speculation that Canada will terminate (with one year’s notice) the existing bilateral with the UAE and close Canadian airspace to UAE carriers, I don’t think that that’s going to happen because, frankly, the Canadian government has better things to worry about and maintaining the status quo is simpler than taking such an action. Let’s hope for the sake of Emirates and Etihad that I’m right because DXB-IAH/SFO/LAX and AUH-ORD without the benefit of Canadian airspace will not be a simple exercise. They might even need to park a few planes – luckily there’s some ramp space opening up at Camp Mirage.
Great circle paths: AUH-ORD and DXB-IAH/LAX/SFO
