airceo.com

We’re in the second quarter of 2010, which means that in a parallel universe somewhere Air Canada is dotting the umlauts (even in this parallel universe it’s worthwhile running things past zee Germans) and crossing the t’s in the final ramp up to entry into service (EIS) of the 787-8. If only the same thing was happening in this world. The 787 – when it arrives – will be a godsend for Air Canada.

Despite the severe delays in the 787 program Air Canada unlike certain other buyers have kept fairly quiet. There have been no brash statements made to the media or Boeing, no threats to cancel the order, and no toys have been thrown. It’s been business as usual. Is this inactivity just a manifestation of Canadian sensibilities? It could be but I doubt it. Ever since the 787 order was finalized (and subsequently grown through the conversion of options) the exact role the 787 will play has not been publicly revealed. The tune emanating from Air Canada circles has been that the 787 will be a straight swap for for the current 767 fleet. Sure they both seat about 210 passengers but a straight swap would require only 30 frames, not the firm 37 (+23 options) currently on the books. That indicates an eye on growth. Where? The answer to that lies in the 787′s superior range.

Anything you can do I can do better
Consider the reach of the 767 (10,549 km) vs the 787 (14,700 km¹) from Toronto:

What about Vancouver?

That band in the middle reflects areas that the 787 can reach that the 767 can’t. The 787 puts most of the far East and all of the Asian Subcontinent and Africa within reach. No stops. No weight restrictions. No problems. Consider some of the cities that fall into this band: Delhi, Mumbai, Karachi, Colombo, Dhaka, Johannesburg, Seoul/Incheon, Auckland, Bangkok, Manila. Surely some of those are viable from YYZ?

Aotearoa Dreamin’
With well timed connections onto Australia I find it impossible to believe that Toronto-Auckland could not work. NZ serves Australia extensively and is a member of the Star Alliance. There is a natural fit. Given ETOPS requirements YYZ-AKL is a stretch but should be possible. Granted Air Canada could serve other locations (than Sydney) in Australia using the 787 from Vancouver (see Fig 2 above) or indeed add YVR-AKL but I think that would cannibalize from the existing Vancouver-Sydney service. The bigger wrinkle here is that Air New Zealand have also ordered the 787 and will likely deploy it to North America and are already well established in both markets. Time to play the Star Alliance Kooperation über alles card.

Next stop Jozi
There is likely already enough demand between Toronto and South Africa to merit a daily service. Middle eastern and European carriers dangle special fares to South Africa to their Canadian web visitors. Obviously this is in part due to the upcoming football World Cup but this practice has been in place for a long time. Even if Canada-South Africa traffic is put aside one can not ignore the additional reach attainable through South African Airways’ network.

A doosra for Delhi
Routes to South Asia pose another challenge. Those of you that follow Air Canada will know that they have already tried (and failed) to establish a presence in India. The reason for this retreat was simple, they just didn’t have the right plane and positioning to compete. The 340s were too big and by many accounts too thirsty for the job and the short-lived Toronto-Zurich-Delhi runs on 767s were also not hitting the mark. There is a lot of capacity and competition between Canada and India. In fact you can probably fly one-stop to Delhi from Toronto through no less than a dozen cities but no matter how good the in-flight product is I doubt it can compete with a painless, direct service – price sensitivity be damned. The question for me is not whether AC will re-enter the region it’s more where and when. Delhi is the obvious choice.

Asia pacifically
Incheon and Bangkok are also interesting. Canada and Korea have an open skies arrangement in place and Canada and Thailand have a fairly open Air Services agreement in place. They are both of course also Star Alliance hubs and either could be used as a staging ground from which to target pacific rim traffic.

And then there’s Manila. At first glance it seems like fairly random destination to throw into the mix but when you consider that Filipino-Canadians are the third-largest Asian-Canadian group in Canada after the Indian and Chinese communities it’s not so far fetched.

All of the above completely ignores both Calgary and Montreal, two cities with great potential. It also ignores the additional frames and operational flexibility that will be made available when the 787s start arriving in earnest. Most importantly I have ignored visa hassles. Considering that nationals of  many (if not all) of the countries now in scope – thanks to the 787 – need transit visas to get to Canada through Europe and the United States. These visas are both slow to obtain and expensive.

The variables and possibilities are staggering but the promise of the 787 is undeniable. Let’s hope Air Canada has something interesting in store. What do you think? Am I off my rocker?

Notes
1] I took the average of the two projected ranges here.